World Economy: Bottom of Output Reached

World Economy: Bottom of Output Reached

In the first quarter of 2009 global production continued to shrink at a breathtaking pace, but indicators increasingly point to stabilization of output in the course of the summer semester. However, we expect the coming recovery to be modest by historical standards. Global GDP is forecast to rise by 2.3 percent in 2010, again significantly below its trend growth rate. While this represents a slight upward revision from our March projections, the outlook for economic growth in 2009 has significantly deteriorated further. We now expect world output to drop by 1.5 percent (March forecast: –0.8 percent).

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